VanEck is seeing Bitcoin nearing accumulation as eight capitulation signals flash.
Bitcoin posted a modest recovery on Wednesday, which helped it climb above $64,000. The cryptocurrency is still almost 50% down from its all-time high, but VanEck’s latest analysis revealed that 8 of 12 tracked signals in its “Bitcoin Capitulation Check” are now firing.
This suggests that the market may be nearing the end of its correction phase.
Shallower Trough
VanEck said that all 12 signals entered their capitulation zones at some point over the past three months, while BTC itself has spent the past month stabilizing after recovering from its June summer low and may have bottomed near $58,500 on June 30.
Meanwhile, US spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded more than $950 million in net inflows so far in August, which points to some renewed institutional demand even as the crypto asset remains below its record high.
VanEck expects a shallower trough this cycle compared with previous Bitcoin downturns. Earlier bottoms saw drawdowns of 94%, 85%, 84%, and 78%. Those periods also came before the current spot ETF market and when institutional ownership was much smaller. More importantly, each of those cycles saw major failures across the market. This time, there has been no Celsius, Three Arrows Capital, or FTX collapse.
According to its findings, Bitcoin appears to have gone through price capitulation, and the market is nearing or currently in an accumulation phase.
That accumulation phase could gain further momentum if more capital begins moving back into crypto, which Bitfinex identifies as the major missing piece for Bitcoin’s next rally. In its latest Alpha report, the exchange said two of the three conditions for a BTC rally are already in place: lower expected rates and already-loose financial conditions.
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The third – capital flowing from equities, technology, and AI markets into crypto – has yet to materialize. For instance, corporate Bitcoin treasury activity has turned negative, and stablecoin supply remains below its May record. Bitfinex warned that in such a thin market, even relatively small changes in flows could produce an outsized move.
Bigger Move Ahead
Some investors are, however, already looking much further ahead.
SkyBridge Capital founder Anthony Scaramucci recently told CNBC that he expects Bitcoin to climb back above $100,000, a level the cryptocurrency has not closed above since November 2025. He believes the six-digit price territory will come around the halving, scheduled to take place in less than two years.
